Study: Climate change could halve grazing lands by 2100 - Climate Change Devastates Africa's Pastoralists as Grasslands Vanish

Pastoralism supports around 200 million people worldwide, many of them in Africa's savannas. Regions like southern Ethiopia and Kenya rely on livestock grazing for food and income. Now, climate change threatens this way of life as droughts and rising temperatures shrink available grasslands.

In East Africa, vast grasslands have long provided grazing for cattle, sheep and goats. But frequent droughts have worsened conditions, leaving millions at risk. Kenya alone has seen around two million people face food shortages due to failed harvests and dwindling pasture.

Research warns that by 2100, Africa's suitable grazing lands could shrink by 16% to 65%. Some areas are already nearing the temperature limits for sustainable livestock farming. Somalia declared a drought emergency in November 2022, highlighting the growing crisis.

Between 110 million and 140 million people who depend on grazing could be affected. Their livestock—up to 1.6 billion animals—will also struggle as pasturelands decline by 36% to 50% in the worst-case scenarios.

The shrinking grasslands will force pastoral communities to adapt or abandon traditional ways of life. With fewer areas suitable for grazing, both people and animals face an uncertain future. Governments and aid groups must now address the growing threat to food security and livelihoods across the region.