Philippines Launches Impact-Based Forecasts to Tackle Extreme Weather Risks

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will introduce a new impact-based forecast (IBF) for severe winds in July. This system aims to improve how risks are communicated to the public and local authorities. It will help communities prepare better before extreme weather strikes. The IBF assesses potential damage by looking at a city or municipality’s exposure and vulnerability. It categorises the severity of impact into four levels. Unlike traditional hazard-based forecasts, it focuses on what the weather will do rather than just what it will be.

PAGASA is currently piloting the IBF in Tuguegarao, Legazpi, Palo in Leyte, and New Bataan in Davao De Oro. The system identifies where weather hazards may hit and suggests actions three to five days in advance. It is designed to let local government units make risk-informed decisions before cyclones arrive.

The new forecast will be released alongside PAGASA’s regular weather updates. After rolling out the Severe Winds IBF, the agency plans to expand the Storm Surge IBF nationwide. The IBF will give communities clearer guidance on how to respond to approaching extreme weather. Its early warnings are expected to reduce damage and improve preparedness. PAGASA will continue developing the system to cover more hazards in the future.