Scientists Warn of a Devastating Super El Niño by Late 2026

Scientists are warning of a likely Super El Niño event in 2026, with models showing a warming spike beyond 3.0°C. ClimateAI’s forecasts now place the probability of El Niño conditions starting that year at over 90%. Authorities stress that the time to prepare is now, as early action can significantly reduce damage to crops and economies. The upcoming event follows rising subsurface Pacific temperatures, which have already hit +8°C at depths of 100–150 metres. These readings exceed those recorded before the 1997 and 2015 Super El Niños—both of which caused widespread agricultural losses. The 2015 event alone wiped out over 90% of corn and bean harvests in parts of Central America and deepened drought in Ethiopia.

Current projections suggest El Niño will strengthen in late 2026, peak by year’s end, and linger into 2027. The heat and drought stress during the 2026/27 growing season are expected to surpass previous events, hitting Australia, Southeast Asia, and Africa particularly hard. Indonesia, the world’s third-largest cocoa producer, faces an 87% chance of severe yield disruption, while Ghana, the second-largest, has a 71% risk of medium heat damage. Governments and groups like the FAO already have response plans in place. Studies show that every dollar spent on preparation saves farming families more than seven times that amount in avoided losses.

The window for anticipatory action remains open, but narrowing. With El Niño’s effects likely to stretch into 2027, early investment in mitigation could limit the worst outcomes for food production and vulnerable regions. The data underscores the need for coordinated efforts before the event fully develops.